{"id":3412,"date":"2025-06-15T19:11:11","date_gmt":"2025-06-15T11:11:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/?p=3412"},"modified":"2025-06-15T19:11:11","modified_gmt":"2025-06-15T11:11:11","slug":"202506-%e8%ae%ba%e6%96%87%e7%a0%94%e8%af%bb-counterfactual-causal-inference-in-natural-language-with-large-language-models","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/202506-%e8%ae%ba%e6%96%87%e7%a0%94%e8%af%bb-counterfactual-causal-inference-in-natural-language-with-large-language-models\/","title":{"rendered":"202506 \u8bba\u6587\u7814\u8bfb-Counterfactual Causal Inference in Natural Language with Large Language Models"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u6765\u6e90\uff1aarXiv<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aGa\u00ebl Gendron\u3001Jo\u017ee M. Ro\u017eanec\u3001Michael Witbrock\u3001Gillian Dobbie<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5355\u4f4d\uff1aJo\u017eef Stefan\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u3001\u5965\u514b\u5170\u5927\u5b66\u7b49<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53d1\u8868\u65f6\u95f4\uff1a2024\u5e7410\u6708<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e00\u3001\u8bba\u6587\u4ecb\u7ecd<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u80cc\u666f\uff1a\u4f20\u7edf\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f9d\u8d56\u7ed3\u6784\u5316\u6570\u636e\u4e0e\u663e\u5f0f\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u65b0\u95fb\u6587\u672c\u7b49\u975e\u7ed3\u6784\u5316\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u9762\u4e34\u53d8\u91cf\u672a\u77e5\u3001\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6570\u636e\u7f3a\u5931\u3001\u6f5c\u5728\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\u590d\u6742\u7b49\u6311\u6218\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1LLMs\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e2d\u5c55\u73b0\u6f5c\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u80fd\u529b\u5b58\u5728\u5c40\u9650\u6027\uff08\u5982\u4f9d\u8d56\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u7684\u9884\u5b58\u56e0\u679c\u77e5\u8bc6\u3001\u903b\u8f91\u63a8\u7406\u9519\u8bef\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6838\u5fc3\uff1a\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u8bba\u6587\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8eLLM\u6253\u9020\u201c\u591a\u9636\u6bb5\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u63a8\u7406\u5f15\u64ce\u201d\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4e09\u9636\u6bb5\u6d41\u7a0b\uff08\u56e0\u679c\u56fe\u63d0\u53d6\u2192\u591a\u6e90\u56fe\u878d\u5408\u2192\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5e72\u9884\uff09\u5b9e\u73b0\u81ea\u7136\u8bed\u8a00\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e8c\u3001\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u6846\u67b6<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"327\" src=\"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-26-1024x327.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3413\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-26-1024x327.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-26-300x96.png 300w, https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-26-768x246.png 768w, https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-26.png 1245w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5c55\u793a\u7aef\u5230\u7aef\u6d41\u7a0b\u7684\u56db\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\uff1a\u56e0\u679c\u56fe\u63d0\u53d6\uff08LLM\u4ece\u6587\u672c\u4e2d\u8bc6\u522b\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0e\u5173\u7cfb\uff09\uff1b\u56fe\u5408\u5e76\uff08\u591a\u6587\u672c\u56fe\u7684\u878d\u5408\u7b56\u7565\uff09\uff1b\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u67e5\u8be2\uff08\u5bf9\u5e72\u9884\u53d8\u91cf\u8fdb\u884c\u201cwhat if\u201d\u63a8\u7406\uff09\uff1b\u56e0\u679c\u56fe\u8bc4\u4f30\uff08LLM\u5bf9\u751f\u6210\u56fe\u7684\u81ea\u8bc4\u5206\u4e0e\u7f6e\u4fe1\u5ea6\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e09\u3001\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u6b65\u9aa4\u6848\u4f8b<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u793a\u4f8b\u8bf4\u660e\uff1a\u4e8b\u5b9e\u56fe\u3001\u63a8\u7406\u6b65\u9aa4\u3001\u5e72\u9884\u6b65\u9aa4\u3001\u9884\u6d4b\u6b65\u9aa4\u3001\u4f18\u5316\u7248\u672c<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"228\" src=\"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-29-1024x228.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3416\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-29-1024x228.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-29-300x67.png 300w, https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-29-768x171.png 768w, https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-29.png 1349w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"877\" height=\"200\" src=\"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-28.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3415\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-28.png 877w, https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-28-300x68.png 300w, https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-28-768x175.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 877px) 100vw, 877px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u56db\u3001Cladder\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u7684\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u67e5\u8be2\u793a\u4f8b<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"441\" src=\"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-30-1024x441.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3417\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-30-1024x441.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-30-300x129.png 300w, https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-30-768x331.png 768w, https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-30.png 1153w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>(\u5de6)\u63d0\u4f9b\u7ed9\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u8bed\u8a00\u7684\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6587\u548c\u95ee\u9898\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002(\u53f3)\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u57fa\u771f\u548c\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u56e0\u679c\u56fe\uff0c(H)\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9690\u85cf\u7684\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u503c\u662f\u5728\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e2d\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7528\u84dd\u8272\u663e\u793a\uff0c(C)\u559d\u5496\u5561\uff0c(S)\u9ad8\u5de5\u8d44\u6216\u4f4e\u5de5\u8d44\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e94\u3001\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5185\u5bb9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e00\uff1a\u8bc4\u4f30\u5927\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u63a8\u7406\u4efb\u52a1\u4e2d\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u5dee\u5f02\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"630\" height=\"361\" src=\"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-31.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3418\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-31.png 630w, https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-31-300x172.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 630px) 100vw, 630px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e8c\uff1a\u9a8c\u8bc1\u6a21\u578b\u751f\u6210\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u56fe\u4e0e\u771f\u5b9e\u56e0\u679c\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u5339\u914d\u5ea6\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u7531\u6a21\u578b\u6784\u5efa\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u56fe\u4e0e\u771f\u503c\u56e0\u679c\u56fe\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u56fe\u5f62\u7f16\u8f91\u8ddd\u79bb(GED)\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1002\" height=\"226\" src=\"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-32.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3419\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-32.png 1002w, https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-32-300x68.png 300w, https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-32-768x173.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1002px) 100vw, 1002px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e00\uff1a\u8bc4\u4f30\u5927\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u751f\u6210\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u94fe\u7684\u5b8c\u6574\u6027\u4e0e\u6307\u4ee4\u9075\u5faa\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"828\" height=\"388\" src=\"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-33.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3420\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-33.png 828w, https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-33-300x141.png 300w, https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-33-768x360.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 828px) 100vw, 828px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e8c\uff1a\u91cf\u5316\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u63a8\u7406\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u5f52\u56e0\u673a\u5236<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"609\" height=\"196\" src=\"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-34.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3421\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-34.png 609w, https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-34-300x97.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 609px) 100vw, 609px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Counterfactual-CI\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u6267\u884c\u591a\u53d8\u91cf\u56e0\u679c\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u63a8\u7406\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u91cf\u5316\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u8bef\u5dee\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u884c\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u5728\u5e72\u9884\uff08\u9ec4\u8272\uff09do\uff080 =\u201c\u4f4e\u201d\uff09\u548cdo\uff089 =\u201c\u5047\u201d\uff09\u4e0b\u63d0\u53d6\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\u56fe\u548c\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u56fe\u3002\u5916\u6e90\u6027\u56e0\u7d20\u4e3a\u7ea2\u8272\u3002\u5916\u5c55\u540e\uff0c\u4f1a\u4e3a\u5176\u6307\u5b9a\u4e00\u4e2a\u503c\uff08\u4ee5\u84dd\u8272\u8868\u793a\uff09\u3002\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u6b65\u9aa4\u4e2d\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u4ee5\u7eff\u8272\u663e\u793a\u3002\u6700\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u51e0\u884c\u663e\u793a\u7684\u662f\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u548c\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"745\" height=\"494\" src=\"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-35.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3422\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-35.png 745w, https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-35-300x199.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 745px) 100vw, 745px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u516d\u3001\u8bba\u6587\u603b\u7ed3<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-36.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3423\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-36.png 800w, https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-36-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-36-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e03\u3001\u8bba\u6587\u542f\u53d1<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-37.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3424\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-37.png 800w, https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-37-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-37-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u6765\u6e90\uff1aarXiv \u4f5c\u8005\uff1aGa\u00ebl Gendron\u3001Jo\u017ee M. Ro\u017eanec\u3001Michael Witbro [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":61,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3412","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-events"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3412","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/61"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3412"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3412\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3426,"href":"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3412\/revisions\/3426"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3412"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3412"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.15zhi.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3412"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}